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The chart above presents my phasing analysis on the GBPUSD currency pair. It seems evident that the declines of the second 54 month cycle of the second 9 year cycle is still underway although we have reason to believe that the extreme volatility and perhaps price level within the cycle in the GBPUSD is behind us. The phasing suggests that we are in the final 18 month cycle of the final 54 month cycle of the final 9 year cycle of the 18 month wave as mentioned earlier. Personally I would not go short the GBPUSD at this moment in time considering our bearish stance on the USD going forward. The GBPUSD could be the late pair to react to the upcoming USD weakness from October going forward.
This is the near term projection we have on the GBPUSD. There does seem to be a final sell off left that should reflect lack of activity on the downside that would convince the market to bid it up in order for it to achieve higher prices going forward. I believe the extreme low in this currency pair will be seen in 2017 and that low will mark a historic low since we are anticipating a large move to the upside as is presented by the projection line below.
As visible above, the recent decline in the GBPUSD currency pair is very much a terminal one that should lead to a much larger advance to the upside that should progress into 2020. The most volatile portion of the upcoming cycle will be between the late portion of 2018 to the end of the second quarter of 2019. The volatility index of the upcoming 54 month cycle is presented below.
There seems to be a pattern in the upcoming cycle of higher volatility from the third to the first/second quarter of the upcoming two years. The indicator suggests however that holding on the Sterlings in 2017 will most likely not lead to a significant price movement hence will yield a small percentage gain. This all changes in late 2017 when volatility is projected to experience an uptick.
Charted above is what is currently left of the current cycle. We are expecting a decline but certainly not as significant as one would expect after the Brexit vote suggesting that it might not be as bad as most people thought. In any case, once the decline into early December is over the extreme low of the cycle should be in if history is going to repeat once again as it always does.
Best Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly
The chart above presents my phasing analysis on the GBPUSD currency pair. It seems evident that the declines of the second 54 month cycle of the second 9 year cycle is still underway although we have reason to believe that the extreme volatility and perhaps price level within the cycle in the GBPUSD is behind us. The phasing suggests that we are in the final 18 month cycle of the final 54 month cycle of the final 9 year cycle of the 18 month wave as mentioned earlier. Personally I would not go short the GBPUSD at this moment in time considering our bearish stance on the USD going forward. The GBPUSD could be the late pair to react to the upcoming USD weakness from October going forward.
This is the near term projection we have on the GBPUSD. There does seem to be a final sell off left that should reflect lack of activity on the downside that would convince the market to bid it up in order for it to achieve higher prices going forward. I believe the extreme low in this currency pair will be seen in 2017 and that low will mark a historic low since we are anticipating a large move to the upside as is presented by the projection line below.
As visible above, the recent decline in the GBPUSD currency pair is very much a terminal one that should lead to a much larger advance to the upside that should progress into 2020. The most volatile portion of the upcoming cycle will be between the late portion of 2018 to the end of the second quarter of 2019. The volatility index of the upcoming 54 month cycle is presented below.
There seems to be a pattern in the upcoming cycle of higher volatility from the third to the first/second quarter of the upcoming two years. The indicator suggests however that holding on the Sterlings in 2017 will most likely not lead to a significant price movement hence will yield a small percentage gain. This all changes in late 2017 when volatility is projected to experience an uptick.
Charted above is what is currently left of the current cycle. We are expecting a decline but certainly not as significant as one would expect after the Brexit vote suggesting that it might not be as bad as most people thought. In any case, once the decline into early December is over the extreme low of the cycle should be in if history is going to repeat once again as it always does.
Best Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly
Gbpusd
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